Casino bonus calculator: what wagering really costs
The default offer (A$100 deposit, A$100 bonus, 35x on the bonus, pokies at 96% RTP) needs A$3,500 in bets and is expected to cost A$140. That leaves the bonus worth −A$40 on average.
Result
- Bets required (turnover)
- A$3,500
- Expected loss while clearing it
- A$140
- Bonus worth, on average
- −A$40 −40% of its face value
- RTP needed to break even
- 97.14%
- Spins at your bet size
- 3,500
- Average balance if you finish
- A$60
Your bet is above the maximum bet. Many casinos void the bonus and winnings if you go over it.
The expected loss is larger than your deposit plus bonus. In practice you would most likely run out of balance before finishing the wagering.
Common offers, already worked out
These rows use the same formula as the calculator, so you can read the result without any script. They assume a A$100 deposit, a matching A$100 bonus and pokies that return 96% and count 100%.
| Wagering | Applies to the bonus | Applies to deposit + bonus | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bets needed | Expected loss | Bonus worth | Bets needed | Expected loss | Bonus worth | |
| 20x | A$2,000 | A$80 | A$20 | A$4,000 | A$160 | −A$60 |
| 25x | A$2,500 | A$100 | A$0 | A$5,000 | A$200 | −A$100 |
| 30x | A$3,000 | A$120 | −A$20 | A$6,000 | A$240 | −A$140 |
| 35x | A$3,500 | A$140 | −A$40 | A$7,000 | A$280 | −A$180 |
| 40x | A$4,000 | A$160 | −A$60 | A$8,000 | A$320 | −A$220 |
| 50x | A$5,000 | A$200 | −A$100 | A$10,000 | A$400 | −A$300 |
How to use it
- Copy the deposit, the bonus amount and the wagering multiple from the offer terms. If the bonus is a percentage match, work out the dollar amount first.
- Choose what the wagering applies to. If the terms say "deposit and bonus", pick that option, because it doubles the bets for a matching bonus.
- Enter how much of each bet counts toward the requirement (100% for most pokies) and the RTP of the game you will play.
- Read the bonus worth. A negative figure means the expected loss while clearing the bonus is larger than the bonus. A positive one means the bonus still keeps value after that cost.
Sticky bonuses, where the bonus amount is removed when you cash out, are not modelled as a separate mode in this version. For those, treat the bonus as playing money only and judge the offer by the expected loss figure.
How the calculator works
It uses three lines of arithmetic:
- Bets required = wagering base × wagering multiple ÷ game contribution. The base is the bonus, or the deposit plus the bonus, depending on the terms.
- Expected loss = bets required × (1 − RTP). A game returning 96% keeps 4% of every dollar bet, on average.
- Bonus worth = bonus − expected loss. The RTP at which this reaches zero is 1 − bonus ÷ bets required.
Example from the default offer: A$100 × 35 ÷ 100% = A$3,500 in bets; × 4% = A$140 expected loss; A$100 − A$140 = −A$40.
What the number does not tell you
- It is an average, not a forecast. Pokies are volatile. One session can finish far above or below the expected figure, and you can run out of balance before you finish wagering.
- It ignores caps and extras. Maximum cash-out limits, expiry dates, excluded games and bet caps change real outcomes. Read the terms for each.
- It assumes you clear the requirement. If you stop early you usually forfeit the bonus, and often the winnings made with it.
- It uses the RTP you type in. A game with a lower RTP makes the cost larger. Casinos can change which games count.
The calculator makes no recommendation and nothing here is advice to gamble. Read the wagering guide for what each term means, and our method for the checks behind this page.
Questions
What does "applies to deposit plus bonus" mean?
The wagering multiple is multiplied by your deposit and the bonus together, not the bonus alone. With a A$100 deposit, a A$100 bonus and 35x, that is A$7,000 in bets instead of A$3,500.
Where do I find the RTP?
Each pokie publishes its return to player, usually in the game info or help screen. Many sit between 94% and 97%. Use the RTP of the game you will actually play, because the bonus terms rarely pick it for you.
Does a negative result mean never take the bonus?
No. It means that, on average, clearing the requirement costs more than the bonus is worth. The result is an average over many plays. Any single session can end well above or below it.