How pokies work, and whether you can win
Short answer: every spin is decided by a random number generator and is independent of the last one. Each game is set to return a share of money bet over the long run (its RTP), and the rest is the venue's edge. You can win in a session, but nothing you do changes the odds. At a 96% RTP and A$1 a spin, 1,000 spins is expected to cost about A$40.
A random result on every spin
Modern pokies, in venues and online, run on a random number generator (RNG). The software produces numbers constantly, and the moment you press spin it uses the current number to choose where the reels stop. The graphics then show a result that was already decided. Because the choice is random each time, a spin cannot "remember" earlier spins. A machine that has not paid for an hour is no more likely to pay next than one that just did, and a big win does not make the next spin colder.
Reels, symbols and paylines
The reels, symbols and paylines (or "ways") are how the result is displayed and how wins are counted. Each symbol has a different weight in the game's design, so the rare symbols that pay the most appear less often than the common ones. What you see on screen is a presentation of the maths underneath, and a symbol that sits just above the payline is not "nearly" a win in any mathematical sense.
RTP: the share that comes back
Return to player (RTP) is the percentage of all money bet that a game is designed to pay back over a very large number of spins. A 96% game keeps 4% on average. That 4% is the house edge, and it is the price of playing. You can see how it adds up in dollars in our RTP guide, including a table of expected losses for different RTPs and bet sizes.
Volatility and hit frequency
Two games can share the same RTP and feel completely different. Hit frequency is how often a spin pays anything. Volatility describes how that return is spread: a low-volatility game pays small amounts often, while a high-volatility game pays rarely but in larger lumps. High volatility means a bigger chance of a long dry run and a bigger swing when a feature lands. Neither changes the average cost. They change how bumpy the ride is, and how quickly a balance can run out.
Bonus features and jackpots
Free spins, pick-and-win rounds, multipliers and progressive jackpots are built into the same maths. Features that feel generous are usually paid for by the base game returning less between them. Jackpots work the same way: the chance of the top prize on any one spin is tiny, and part of the RTP is reserved to fund it.
Why it feels closer than it is
Pokies are designed to be engaging, and several effects make results feel better than they are.
- Losses disguised as wins. On a spin where you bet A$1 and win A$0.40, the machine plays celebratory sounds and flashes, although you lost A$0.60. Research on gambling machines has found that players remember these as wins.
- Near misses. Two jackpot symbols and one just above the line feel like almost winning. The outcome is the same as any other miss.
- Speed. Fast spins mean more bets per hour. At A$2 a spin and 10 spins a minute the turnover is A$1,200 an hour, so a 4% edge costs about A$48 an hour on average.
Can you win on the pokies?
Yes, in a session you can finish ahead, because the results are random and variance is large. What you cannot do is improve your expected result. Betting systems, "hot" machines, timing, and changing bet size do not alter the RTP. The only things that change the cost are the RTP of the game you pick, how much you bet in total, and the terms of any bonus. For bonuses, the bonus calculator shows how wagering requirements convert into expected losses.
Online and in venues
The mechanics are the same idea in both settings: random results with a published or regulated return. The legal position is different. In Australia the Interactive Gambling Act restricts online casino services offered to people in the country, and the regulator blocks offending sites. This guide explains the maths and does not recommend or link to any operator. For the law, speak to a lawyer, as the rules change.
If gambling stops being fun
Warning signs include chasing losses, hiding gambling, or spending more than planned. Free, confidential help is available 24/7 on 1800 858 858. See help and support, and read how BetStop works if you want to block licensed betting sites.
Questions
How does a pokie decide when to pay out?
It does not decide in the moment. A random number generator picks an outcome the instant you press spin, and the result of one spin has no effect on the next. There are no machines that are due to pay.
What is the chance of winning on the pokies?
On any spin the chance of a win depends on the game, and many spins return less than the bet or nothing. Over time the machine returns its RTP, for example 96 cents per dollar bet. Winning in a session is possible. Winning over a long run is not something you can plan for.
Can I beat the pokies?
No betting pattern, bet size or timing changes the odds of a licensed machine. Lower-RTP games cost more per dollar, and bonus offers change the price of play, but none of them turns the maths in your favour.
Why do I never win on the pokies?
You do win small amounts often, but most spins return less than your bet and the average always favours the venue. Wins that return less than the bet are celebrated with lights and sounds, which makes the session feel better than the numbers say.
Keep reading
- What RTP means on pokies: return to player in dollars, and the myths around it
- Wagering requirements explained: bonus-only versus deposit plus bonus, with tables
- Bonus value calculator: see what a wagering requirement costs in dollars